Report: Sunbelt states may outpace recovery – Denver Business Journal:

Though the quarterly economic report issued June 23 by notedethat “the worst is behind us,” each state’s recovery will hingre on how well that state is able to assimilate its portiom of the federal stimulus package, among other “At the moment, the economh is still contracting, so we expect to see negativee GDP growth in the secons quarter, but at a slower pace than in (the firsg quarter),” said Nathaniel Karp, the bank’ws U.S. chief economist.
“Consumption, however, is expected to lead the resurgencre in economic activity in the seconc half ofthe year, but the high unemploymenr rate, the greater propensity to save and the high degrer of uncertainty regarding the impact of the fiscal stimulus package could present risks to this scenario.” Though the economistzs believe Texas’ economy is weakening as home prices gradually decline this year — while other Sunbelt states that saw much steeper declines level off or move higher — and the globa l recession deepens, the state is still aheae of the national curve.
“In economic growth will be negative in all the statess in the Sunbeltexcluding Texas, wherde GDP will be positive in real terms,” the report said. The BBVA Compass economists predicrt that only Texas and Colorado will see GDP growth stay flat in compared tothe six-state averagwe 1 percent decline and 2 percent drop nationwide. Texase GDP is expected to growby 1.7 percenr in 2010. Employment will decline 2.3 percenf in Texas this year, compared to a 3.8 perceny drop across the U.S. The studh covered economic activityin Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Alabama and New the six states in whicb BBVA Compass operates.

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