Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter – Nashville Business Journal:

Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wright Statde and author ofthe report, said unemploymentt increases will continue at their accelerate d pace into the third quarter of this year. The Dayton Metropolitanm Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miamji and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,000 jobs in the third quarter. That would drop employmentr to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the firstt quarter of the year, a 2 percen t decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longrelied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the report show employment in the sector fallingtfrom 42,300 in the first quartere of this year to 36,100 by the thirf quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durable goods manufacturinv will be hitin particular, Traynor said. “Peoplew aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectedcto decrease. Retail employment is expectede to dropto 39,100 by the third down from 40,000 in the first quarter, a 2 percenft drop.
Service employment, which includes financiaol service, business service, utilities and leisure is projected to decreaseto 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline. “The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasan time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expectexd to rise as a part ofseasona employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsf quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time perio last year. One area of employmengt that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthb care.
In fact, Traynor said he expectx health care to add some jobs by thethirdf quarter, going up to 56,500p from 56,300 in the first quarter. He said the rate of declin in gross domestic productwill slow, but remain negatived through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthj quarter of this year. Even when GDP does become positivse again, it will take some time for employment to pick up becauswe it is a lagging indicatord ofeconomic recovery. Traynor said there is a greayt deal of uncertainty stilpl on thenational level, as businesses try to determinr the impact of government actions.
Traynor said the problem of high unemploymentf is not going awayanytime “This is something we’re going to be livint with for quite a while, well into next he said.
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