Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter – Los Angeles Business from bizjournals:

Tom Traynor, an economics professotr at Wright State and author of the said unemployment increases will continuwe at their accelerated pace into the third quarter ofthis year. The Daytobn Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miamji and Preble counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,00p jobs in the third That would drop employmentto 373,900, down from 380,4000 in the first quarter of the year, a 2 percenr decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Dayton area has longreliedx on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the reporty show employment in the sector fallingfrom 42,300 in the first quarterf of this year to 36,100 by the thirxd quarter, a nearly 15 percent drop. Durables goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t spending. They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expected to Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,1009 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the firsyt quarter, a 2 percent Service employment, which includes financial service, business utilities and leisure service, is projected to decrease to 324,200 by the third down from 326,700 in the first quarter, a nearly 1 percenty decline.
“The next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantf time forthe region,” Traynor said. Construction employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonak employment, to 13,400 from 11,400 in the firsrt quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time periodd last year. One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healtu care. In fact, Traynor said he expects healt care to add some jobs by thethirdx quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the first quarter.
He said the rate of declin e in gross domestic product will but remain negative through the thirf quarter and maybe into the fourth quarter of this Even when GDP does becomepositivee again, it will take some time for employment to pick up because it is a lagging indicator of economix recovery. Traynor said there is a great deal of uncertaintyt still on the national as businesses try to determine the impacf ofgovernment actions. Traynor said the problej of high unemployment is not going awayanytimew soon.
“This is something we’re goinbg to be living with for quitwea while, well into next year,” he
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